Prediction markets — platforms where users trade contracts on the outcomes of future events — have exploded in the United States over the past two years. From presidential elections to Federal Reserve rate decisions, these markets aggregate information from thousands of traders to generate real-time probability forecasts. Here's the definitive ranking of the largest prediction markets operating in the US as of 2026.
New to prediction markets? Check out our explainer: How Do Prediction Markets Work? Are They Cryptocurrency? →
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a financial exchange where participants trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. If you believe the event will happen, you buy contracts that pay out if you're right. If you think it won't happen, you short or sell contracts. The real-time price of these contracts reflects the crowd's aggregate belief about the probability of the outcome.
Example: A contract asking "Will inflation be above 3% in Q2 2026?" might trade at $0.65. This suggests the market believes there's a 65% probability that inflation will exceed 3%.
Prediction markets have been shown in academic studies to be more accurate than polls, expert forecasts, and statistical models — because they aggregate the "wisdom of the crowd" and financially incentivize accurate predictions.
The Largest US Prediction Markets: 2026 Rankings
1. Polymarket
Decentralized • Polygon Blockchain • Crypto-Based
Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world by trading volume. Built on Polygon, it operates as a decentralized exchange where users trade USDC-denominated contracts on outcomes ranging from elections to sports to geopolitical events.
How it works: Users connect a crypto wallet, deposit USDC, and trade binary outcome contracts (Yes/No). Settlement is automated via oracles once the outcome is confirmed.
⚠️ Legal Status: Polymarket does not operate with CFTC approval and technically blocks US IP addresses — but many US users access it via VPN. The platform settled with the CFTC in 2022 for $1.4M and agreed not to offer markets to US users without registration. Enforcement remains limited.
2. Kalshi
CFTC-Regulated • Fiat-Based • US Legal
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States. It offers event contracts on economic data releases, weather, awards shows, and more — all settled in US dollars.
How it works: Users deposit USD via bank transfer, trade contracts denominated in cents ($0.01 - $1.00), and withdraw winnings directly to their bank account. All markets are approved by the CFTC before launch.
✅ Legal Status: Fully compliant with CFTC regulations. US users can trade without restrictions. Kalshi won a major legal victory in 2024 allowing it to offer political event contracts, dramatically expanding its addressable market.
3. PredictIt
No-Action Letter • Political Markets • Academic Research
PredictIt operates under a CFTC "no-action letter" granted for academic research purposes. It focuses almost exclusively on political markets — congressional races, presidential approval ratings, legislative outcomes, and geopolitical events.
How it works: Users deposit USD, trade contracts capped at $850 per position, and pay a 10% fee on profits at withdrawal. Markets are structured as multi-outcome contracts (e.g., "Who will win the 2028 Iowa caucus?").
⚠️ Legal Status: The CFTC attempted to revoke PredictIt's no-action letter in 2022, but a federal court injunction allowed it to continue operating pending further review. Its long-term regulatory status remains uncertain.
4. Augur
Fully Decentralized • Ethereum • Permissionless
Augur is the oldest decentralized prediction market protocol, launched in 2018 on Ethereum. It allows anyone to create a market on any event without intermediaries. Disputes are resolved via decentralized oracle system powered by REP token holders.
How it works: Users create or trade on markets using DAI or ETH. Market creators set the resolution source (e.g., "Outcome determined by NYT reporting"). If disputes arise, REP holders vote on the correct outcome.
⚠️ Legal Status: As a fully decentralized protocol with no central operator, Augur operates in a regulatory grey zone. US users can access it, but there is no compliance framework or KYC.
5. Manifold Markets
Play Money • Social Prediction • Free to Use
Manifold Markets is a free-to-use prediction market platform where users trade with play money ("Mana"). It's designed for social forecasting, personal questions, and community-driven markets.
How it works: Anyone can create a market on any question. Users trade with free virtual currency. While no real money is at stake, leaderboards and social reputation incentivize accurate predictions.
✅ Legal Status: No regulatory concerns since no real money changes hands. Popular in the rationalist and effective altruism communities.
Quick Comparison Table
| Platform | 2025 Volume | Regulatory Status | Currency | Primary Focus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | $2.1B | Non-compliant | USDC (Crypto) | All events |
| Kalshi | $450M | CFTC Approved | USD (Fiat) | Economic/Political |
| PredictIt | $180M | No-Action Letter | USD (Fiat) | Political markets |
| Augur | $65M | Decentralized | ETH/DAI (Crypto) | Permissionless |
| Manifold | N/A (Play money) | No real money | Mana (Virtual) | Social forecasting |
The Regulatory Landscape in 2026
Prediction markets in the US operate under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates event contracts as derivatives. The legal landscape remains complex:
- Kalshi's 2024 court victory established that political event contracts do not violate prohibitions on "gaming" — opening the door for regulated political prediction markets.
- Polymarket's CFTC settlement technically prohibits US users, but enforcement is limited and VPN use is widespread.
- PredictIt's uncertain status following the attempted revocation of its no-action letter has created regulatory ambiguity.
- Decentralized platforms like Augur operate without central operators, making traditional enforcement difficult.
The CFTC is expected to issue clearer guidance on prediction markets in 2026, potentially creating a formal registration pathway for platforms that meet compliance standards.
The Future of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are entering the mainstream. With institutional interest growing, regulatory clarity improving, and trading volumes surging during election cycles, the sector is poised for continued expansion. Key trends to watch:
- Institutional adoption for hedging and forecasting
- Integration with traditional financial infrastructure (bank deposits, brokerage accounts)
- Expansion beyond politics into corporate earnings, product launches, and sports
- Improved UX making prediction markets accessible to mainstream retail users
Whether you're trading for profit, hedging risk, or just interested in what the crowd thinks will happen next — prediction markets are becoming an essential tool for understanding the future.