HOLLYWOOD, CA — Marty Supreme, the A24 sports drama directed by Josh Safdie and starring Timothée Chalamet, heads into the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday as one of the most nominated films of the season — and, according to prediction markets, one of the least likely to win. The film carries nine nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor, yet bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket are broadly forecasting a shutout, with momentum swinging sharply toward Ryan Coogler's Sinners and the performance of Michael B. Jordan, per Yahoo Entertainment.
- Film: Marty Supreme (A24)
- Director: Josh Safdie
- Star: Timothée Chalamet
- Total Nominations: 9, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor
- Chalamet's Oscars history: Third nomination at age 30 (Call Me by Your Name, A Complete Unknown)
- Prediction market consensus: Zero wins — Kalshi & Polymarket
- Favored competition: Sinners (Ryan Coogler / Michael B. Jordan)
Chalamet's Third Nomination at 30
The Best Actor nod represents a milestone for Chalamet regardless of the outcome on Sunday night. At 30 years old, he is competing for his third Academy Award nomination — the first came for his breakthrough work in Call Me by Your Name, followed by last year's recognition for A Complete Unknown, Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic.
His performance in Marty Supreme as the obsessive, charismatic table tennis phenom has drawn its own wave of critical praise, with many reviewers describing it as his most physically and emotionally demanding screen work yet. Safdie's frenetic direction — hallmarks of his prior collaborations includingUncut Gems — puts Chalamet inside an almost non-stop pressure cooker across the film's runtime.
Still, the Academy's preferential ballot system and the late-season momentum swing toward Sinners appear to be working against the film's chances in the top categories, despite its broad recognition across nine nomination slots.
Watch Before the Ceremony: Now on Prime Video and Apple TV
For viewers catching up before Sunday's broadcast, Marty Supreme has been available for home viewing since February 10. The film can be rented for $19.99 or purchased for $24.99 on both Prime Video and Apple TV.
The early digital release reflects a growing industry norm for awards-season films, allowing studios to capture home-viewing revenue during the final push while simultaneously expanding the film's audience ahead of the ceremony. A24's decision to window the title this broadly also positions it well for a potential post-Oscars subscription streaming deal, regardless of how Sunday unfolds.
Sinners and the Market Shift
Despite its impressive nomination count, Marty Supreme has found itself on the wrong side of a late-season momentum swing. Ryan Coogler's Sinners, which arrives at the ceremony with its own significant nomination tally, has captured the imagination of the prediction market community in the final weeks before the vote closed.
On Kalshi and Polymarket, both real-money prediction markets that have demonstrated reasonable accuracy in forecasting Oscar outcomes in recent years, a majority of bettors have positioned toward zero wins for Marty Supreme. The Best Actor race, in particular, is trending toward Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, which would deny Chalamet his first win despite the recognition of a third nod.
The Best Director category, where Safdie competes, and Best Picture are similarly seen as favorable terrain for Sinners, according to aggregated prediction data cited by Yahoo Entertainment.
Whether the markets prove correct will be known by Sunday evening. ObjectWire will publish full 98th Oscars results as winners are announced live on ABC and Hulu beginning at 7 p.m. ET.